James Demmert, CIO at Main Street Research, stated Tuesday that the Dow Jones (DJI) can cross 100,000 in the next 7 to 10 years. He added that the S&P 500 (SP500) and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP.IND) could also cross 15,000 and 50,000, respectively, within the next 10 years.
The New York City-based firm, with its roughly $2B assets under management, pointed to expectations of an explosion in productivity growth thanks to the onset of artificial intelligence.
“It’s entirely plausible for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to cross 100,000 in the next 7-10 years given the super cycle of productivity growth and new business cycle that we envision, which is going to cause corporate profits to surge and corporate profits are the lifeblood of stock prices,” Demmert said.
“We believe the S&P 500 could cross 15,000 within 10 years and that the Nasdaq could cross 50,000 within 10 years, since these two indexes are more heavily weighted in technology stocks, which will be the leaders in the new AI bull market,” Demmert went on to add.
See below the major averages at a glance:
Dow Jones
To place a 100,000 call into perspective the blue-chip index would need to advance by roughly 165% over the next 10 years to hit Main Street Research’s call. For reference, in the previous 10 years the Dow moved up from 16,572 to 37,689 (end of 2023) which equated to an approximate +127% move over the previous 10 years.
Dow focused ETFs: (DIA), (DDM), (UDOW), (DOG), (DXD), and (SDOW).
S&P 500
For the call of 15,000 to ring true the benchmark average would need to gain right around 214% over the next 10 years. Looking back into time, and the S&P 500 previously moved from 1,850 to 4,769 (end of 2023) which broke down to a roughly 157% move over the past decade.
S&P 500 focused ETFs: (SPY), (VOO), (IVV), (SSO), (UPRO), (SH), (SDS), and (SPXU).
Nasdaq Composite
In order for Main Street Research to hit it’s 50,000 call on the Nasdaq Composite it would require the tech focused index to advance by roughly 233% over the next 10 years which is actually less than what it’s moved up in the previous 10 years. Over the last 10 years the Nasdaq went from 4,160 to 15,011 (end of 2023) which equals a 253% move.
Nasdaq focused ETFs: (QQQ), (QLD), (TQQQ), (QID), and (SQQQ).