(Bloomberg) — Global stocks traded at all-time highs before crucial US jobs data that’s expected to show some moderation in hiring. The pound notched its longest winning streak in four years as Labour swept to power in the UK’s general election.
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A series of soft US economic readings has revived hopes that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as soon as September, pushing MSCI Inc.’s world index to a record. US futures pointed to a steady open when Wall Street returns from Thursday’s holiday. Tesla Inc. rose in premarket, on track to turn positive for 2024 after a seven-day winning streak that’s added about $200 billion in market value.
“Given other evidence of a cooling economic backdrop — weaker ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Service Sector PMI reports — the payroll report could be increasingly decisive for the Fed as it seeks a rationale to signal an easing of rates,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
Treasury yields ticked lower and the dollar fell for fourth day to its lowest level in three weeks.
In contrast with the positive tone for equities, Bitcoin sank to the lowest since February, dropping for a fourth session as part of a wider crypto selloff. Crypto speculators currently face a range of challenges, including waning demand for US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and signs that governments are disposing of seized tokens. Crypto-related shares fell.
European stocks climbed, led by the tech sector. In the UK, stocks and government bonds rose and the pound strengthened for a seventh day after the landslide victory for Labour, which handed Keir Starmer’s party 412 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons and a clear mandate to deliver on a pledge of greater economic stability.
“A clear majority could bring some much-needed stability to the UK political landscape at a time of heightened global uncertainty,” said Samuel Zief, head of global FX strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. That “could provide a bit of a kicker for the pound,” he said.
France’s CAC40 also rose for a third day, following indications that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party will likely fall short of an absolute majority in second-round elections this weekend.
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Still, no matter which party comes out on top in the French parliamentary vote, some investors are betting it marks the beginning of a more turbulent period for the country’s stock and bond markets. The CAC 40 has been the worst performer among major European stock indexes since the snap election was called last month, while at the height of the selloff a metric of bond-market risk soared to its highest since the sovereign debt crisis.
Market focus turns later to US jobs figures. Payrolls probably rose by 190,000 in June, a step-down in hiring from the previous month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Average hourly earnings likely increased 3.9% from a year earlier, the least in three years. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4%, the highest level in more than two years.
“The US data will be very interesting for a couple of reasons — you see signs of a bit of a slowdown in the labor market, and the market appears for now to have taken that in stride because it does raise the possibility of an easier monetary policy going down the track,” said Richard Flax, chief investment officer at European digital wealth manager Moneyfarm.
In Asia, Japan’s Topix index briefly touched another record early Friday, having surpassed the previous high set in 1989 in Thursday’s session. Chinese stocks have fallen for seven straight weeks — the longest losing streak since early 2012 — as investor sentiment continues to weaken ahead of a key policy meeting this month.
The yen strengthened for a second day against the greenback to rebound further from the lowest level since 1986 reached on Wednesday. China’s central bank took the next step toward selling government bonds to cool a record-breaking rally, saying it now has “hundreds of billions” of yuan of the securities at its disposal through agreements with lenders.
Oil traded near a two-month high as Hurricane Beryl portended a potentially worse storm season, while shrinking US crude stockpiles hinted at improved demand. Gold headed for a back-to-back weekly gain.
Key events this week:
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 6:03 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.4%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0825
The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2786
The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 160.69 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 6.7% to $54,411.51
Ether fell 8.5% to $2,875.55
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.34%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.59%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.17%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,362.83 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Richard Henderson, Joe Easton and Sagarika Jaisinghani.
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