Prediction: Tesla will finish the year down 30%
Let’s wait and see how this one goes. If I wrote this column a week ago, I would have said Tesla looked like an excellent bet to be down 30% by year end. But shares jumped more than 10% this week on its positive second-quarter news. Despite the high numbers for vehicle deliveries, it has been a volatile year for Tesla shareholders, with prices down 42% at one point. Our central thesis was that decreased profit margins and increased competition would lead to lower profit projections. That still feels solid to me.
Prediction: Crypto might be volatile, but could finish 2024 up 50%
This one hit the bullseye. After going on a tear in February, bitcoin was down almost 20% between mid-March and the beginning of May.
Overall, bitcoin only has to go up slightly over the next six months to meet that 50% return prediction. Of course, I believe the asset will be ultimately worth very little in the long term. Admittedly, I’m quite skeptical about crypto.
Prediction: U.S. election in November will be chaotic
We also predicted that this election year would be more chaotic than most, even though U.S. election years are historically quite positive for U.S. stock markets. We shied away from making too many specific predictions about how a Biden/Trump victory would impact stock-market prices, but said many market-watchers would be cheering for a split government.
Well, it’s certainly been chaotic in the headlines. As the rest of the world watches in disbelief, the 2024 U.S. election has so far proven to be the most volatile campaign in recent memory—and maybe of all time. At this point, betting markets think it’s a coin toss as to whether Biden even makes it as the Democratic Party nominee. Ordinarily, a political candidate running against a convicted felon would be an easy win. Then again, ordinarily, a candidate running against an incumbent whose own party isn’t sure he’s still right for the job would be an easy win as well.
Given all the variables, we don’t even know how to measure the degree of accuracy of this prediction. We did reluctantly predict a very slim Biden victory, and that doesn’t look like such a great prognostication now that Trump is a fairly strong betting favourite. However, our strong feeling was that a split government would lead to a robust end of the year for U.S. stocks. That scenario could still be very much in play. We’re going to wait to fully assess this one.
What’s left of 2024?
After a very accurate round of 2023 predictions, we were statistically unlikely to repeat the feat in 2024. While we may have called it wrong about U.S. tech, I think there’s a good chance we’re going to get the big picture stuff right—by the end of the year. Despite a ton of negative headlines and general “bad vibes” over the last six months, one of my big takeaways is that the world’s stock markets (and especially America’s) should continue to reward patient Canadian investors.
