If there is to be any significant impetus in EUR/USD, it is likely to come from the Dollar side, economists at Commerzbank say.
1.0900 mark would be scratched on a few weaker US data coming in succession
The ISM index for services is on the agenda today. If the ISM services index is weaker than expected, the EUR/USD could launch another attack on the 1.0900 mark.
If a few weaker data come in succession over the course of the week, the view could increasingly prevail that it will be a bumpy landing which, although reasonably successful, will still leave minor damage here and there. In this case, the 1.0900 mark would be scratched.
However, things could also turn out differently: the US labor market, a data heavyweight, could remain robust and therefore underpin the picture of a soft landing again, meaning that the Fed and the market do not have to adjust their interest rate expectations and the USD continues to flex its muscles.
To add another ingredient to the EUR/USD mix, there is also the ECB meeting on Thursday. Our experts are not expecting any major surprises that could shake up the June theory, but you never know. Life is full of surprises. So maybe this week won’t be as boring in EUR/USD as it looks at the moment.
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