Editor’s Note: This story originally appeared in On Balance, the ARTnews newsletter about the art market and beyond. Sign up here to receive it every Wednesday.
The all-important November marquee sales are officially in the rearview mirror, with only Art Basel Miami Beach standing in the way of the art world checking out until January.
By now, a narrative has settled: the auction market appears to have rebounded, thanks to all three major houses finally securing true A+ material, coupled with conservative estimates that encouraged collectors to get off the sidelines.
Top-line numbers looked solid—if not extraordinary—outside of Sotheby’s record-shattering sale of Gustav Klimt’s Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer (1914–16) for $236.4 million. That Klimt, along with two others, boosted Sotheby’s combined take across the Leonard Lauder and Now & Contemporary sales to $706 million, comfortably above the $680.7 million high estimate. Christie’s double-header night brought in a comparable $690 million—though that came in below the $731.5 million high estimate. The following sales on Wednesday and Thursday evening, as well as the day sales, held up well enough.
But the real story was the depth of bidding. After several seasons of sleepy salesrooms, last week’s auctions were peppered with bidding wars, and many lots drew dozens of bids. Even when final prices landed near estimates, there was palpable energy: collectors are ready to re-engage—for the right work, at the right price.
With that in mind, ARTnews reached out to art advisers Aileen Agopian,Pernilla Holmes, and Gabriela Palmieri, along with dealer Lindsay Jarvis, for some post-game analysis.
(Responses have been edited lightly for clarity and concision.)
What lot dramatically overperformed your expectations? What lot dramatically underperformed? How do you account for each?
Aileen Agopian: This season made one thing clear: quality was the biggest winner. It was remarkable to watch the intensity of bidding for artists whose markets had been more measured of late.
Cindy Sherman’s phenomenal Untitled Film Still #13 (1978), originally bought by Stefan Edlis and Gael Neeson from my first evening sale at Phillips in 2000, ignited a fury of bids despite her market having been relatively quiet. [The work soared past its $700,000 high estimate at Christie’s New York to fetch $2.3 million.]
The same held true for Cecily Brown’s High Society (1997–98), an extraordinary painting that achieved a record auction price at Sotheby’s. [A 10-minute bidding war brought it from a $4 million starting bid to $9.8 million, besting her previous record by $3 million.] Yet the following evening, another painting by Brown—It’s Not Yesterday Anymore (2022)—was the only lot that failed to sell. This underscored the season’s defining theme: exceptional works triumphed, and anything less struggled.
Pernilla Holmes: Anyone closely following contemporary art knows how sought-after Yu Nishimura’s work is, but $711,000 [for thicket (2020) at Sotheby’s Now & Contemporary sale] was a huge jump. His introspective, dreamy paintings are a perfect antidote to the brash images we’re regularly bombarded with. And he’s a phenomenal painter. The market recognizes great work—though I’d rather hear more about his practice than his market. I love this artist.
As for underperformance: how about women artists as a category? Not for lack of strong results, but because the evening sales still skewed over 85 percent male. There were exciting records for Firelei Báez, Olga de Amaral, Leonor Fini, Cecily Brown, and Frida Kahlo, showing the demand is there.
Lindsay Jarvis: Contrary to so much reporting regarding the flailing ultra-contemporary sector, Julia Jo’s Rhyme or Reason (2022) sold for over $200,000 at Christie’s Post-War and Contemporary Day Sale on Thursday. The estimate was between $30,000 and $50,000. This outstanding result was particularly surprising, as the artist does not have mega-gallery representation, and highlights how nuanced the market can be.
On the opposite side, the result for Jadé Fadojutimi’s Untitled (2022) was quite underwhelming. When a good example of Fadojutimi’s work cannot get a bid at $500,000, it suggests her rise was too rapid.
Gabriela Palmieri: To start, Cecily Brown’s High Society: I wouldn’t say it overperformed—it recalibrated the bar. This painting affirmed why Cecily is one of the greatest painters of her generation. Eponymously titled after the landmark 1998 Jeffrey Deitch exhibition where a “star was born,” the depth of bidders matched the result.
And then, Cattelan’s America: To sell for one bid, after all the fanfare around such a significant work—with queues lined up for the Instagram photo op—was jarring. That it underperformed and sold to one baking bid while the banana drew real bidding depth is almost ludicrous for such an important work of art.
Maurizio Cattelan, America, 2016
Sotheby's
Who were the biggest winners this auction season? The biggest losers?
Agopian: Beyond the incredible success of the Klimt, I’d highlight the Giacomettis in the Edlis-Neeson sale [at Christie’s], which drew deep bidding. The Agnes Martin in the Lauder sale was a true masterwork, and the response was exactly what a painting of that caliber deserves. [The Garden (1964) sold for $17.6 million after a 10-minute bidding war. Her record is $18.7 million.]
On the other side: the most surprising results came from Kerry James Marshall and Barkley Hendricks, both of whom had works fail to sell at Sotheby’s. [Marshall’s Untitled (2008) was the cover lot for the Now & Contemporary sale; Hendricks’s Arriving Soon (1973) hit the block in the same auction.] Both were exceptional examples, especially given the strength of Marshall’s recent Royal Academy exhibition. It was a reminder that even great works can struggle when estimates are too aggressive.
Holmes: Winner: Sotheby’s. Their single-owner sales—Leonard Lauder, Exquisite Corpus—all housed in the revitalized Breuer building, gave them a string of well-earned wins. [The latter sale featured the Frida Kahlo work El sueño (La cama) which sold for a record-breaking $54.7 million.]
[As for the biggest losers?] No comment. But for any bruised egos out there: it’s only one season in a fast-changing market.
Jarvis: The broader market was the clear winner. Aside from the more orchestrated evening sales, the day sales were consistently strong, with Sotheby’s Contemporary Day Sale reaching a $108 million record total, and new records set for Lynn Drexler, Gertrude Abercrombie, Yu Nishimura, and others. Additionally, a significant number of artists who reached record results in last week’s evening and day sales have had private sales conducted by the major auction houses that exceed these results. This suggests that we have largely moved into a new, more healthy phase of the market with a greater sense of sustainability.
The clear losers have to be the ultra-contemporary artists who rose too fast and were prominent during the pandemic.
Palmieri: Mid-career artists like Koons and Prince continued their uneven rides. But it was fantastic to see Christopher Wool’s masterpiece sell just shy of $20 million, especially given the unwarranted skepticism around his market.
Frida Kahlo, El sueño (La cama), 1940.
Courtesy Sotheby's
Did the sales tell us anything new about collector behavior—especially generationally
Agopian: While the hunt for the next new thing will never die, collectors are clearly moving away from the freshly painted and toward high-caliber works with provenance and art historical weight. There’s a shift toward gravitas over novelty.
Holmes: Despite all the doomsday headlines—Millennials and Gen Z do value great art. They can care about issues, love meaningful experiences, and love meaningful art, all at the same time.
Jarvis: I feel like behavior is regressing to how it was before the pandemic. That’s not a bad thing. People are looking at work in person again, as opposed to during and just after the pandemic, when collectors would see something on Instagram and buy over DMs. It’s a normalization, you could say—things are moving at a more manageable pace, which is good for both artists and dealers.
Palmieri: I think they further reinforced existing collector behavior. Perhaps the best example came in the Exquisite Corpus collection at Sotheby’s: known names like Kahlo, Magritte, and Dalí helped carry along their lesser-known surrealist peers. But the quality was so superlative—like that exceptional Oscar Domínguez typewriter—that collectors aggressively pursued with a confidence that only quality and rarity can inspire.
What actually changed in the market this season—was this a demand story or a supply story? How did pricing discipline hold up once you look past the headlines?
Agopian: The clearest takeaway is that top-tier material dominated the spotlight. Collectors rewarded exceptional work, prioritizing depth, significance, and art historical weight above all else.
Holmes: Both. Though highly visible, auctions are a small dataset to judge a market on, so a few great lots—and exceptional collections like in the Lauder sale—greatly affect visible art market statistics. But renewed buyer confidence is evident and was felt outside the auction rooms also.
Jarvis: Definitely both. The auction houses’ estimate strategy facilitated their success, and consignors were more cautious after the last few years. Many galleries now need to follow.
Palmieri: This was an extremely top-heavy sale season with headline lots from major estates like Lauder, Weiss, Pritzker, Bucksbaum and Edlis, among others. Early on, there was a sense that estimates were punchy across the board—but these were works that had been tucked into these collections for decades. Ultimately, the results became the story, not the estimates.
Yü-Ge Wang sells the top lot of the 21st Century Evening Sale, Christopher Wool’s Untitled (RIOT) for $19.8 million.
Courtesy Christie's
Auction houses saw a rebound this fall, with depth of bidding and solid results across the board. Was this a real turning point? Where did the market’s confidence still falter—and what might that tell us about what’s to come in 2026?
Agopian: Yes, absolutely. You could already feel it starting at Art Basel Paris [in October]. Collectors are no longer on the sidelines. They’re showing conviction—and a readiness to compete for truly top-caliber works. This season showed broader global participation, deeper underbidding, and a clear hunger for works with real historical resonance. If that continues, 2026 will reward quality, provenance, and exceptional work.
Holmes: Last week’s auction figures indicate a rebound that feels healthy rather than overheated. Less a dramatic turning point and more a welcome correction to a functioning market where quality is rewarded. This is being echoed in private sales also. But the really exciting story for 2026 is not whether the market is going up or down, but how it’s growing outward to include a broader range of voices, including Indigenous artists, overlooked historic female artists, and artists from the Global South. That diversification is where the real momentum lies. Art history is all the richer for it.
Jarvis: Last week illustrated that the market has restructured after the pandemic and the following years into an environment that is less speculative and more normalized. In some ways, the market is returning to how it used to be in previous decades. However, as the new cycle emerges, the markets for artists of color and women artists are developing further, along with a revived interest in Surrealism.
Furthermore, many collectors are motivated by compelling arguments that 20th-century artists’ bodies of work should be reevaluated and integrated into the art-historical canon. This phase of the market could also be the beginning of the end for perhaps the best buyer’s market in a generation.
As for who suffered the most and what that means for next year, clearly artists associated with short-term investment strategies from the pandemic and the following years got the short end. Many of these artists did not even make it into the marquee auctions. This indicates the market has largely moved through a cycle, which will continue into 2026.
Palmieri: I’d be cautious about calling it a rebound. There were undeniably superlative results for exceptional works—but also significant casualties when estimates were pushed too far. The strong day sale results are promising. But unless a work appears to market sprinkled with the fairy dust of rarity, provenance, and quality, the market will continue on its very healthy course of of expansion and/or retraction
