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By Matteo Allievi
(Reuters) – The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Thursday it expects its governments’ total bond debt to rise to $56 trillion this year from $54 trillion in 2023 in an environment of restrictive financial conditions.
The United States will represent roughly half of this debt, twice its share in 2008, while the European Union will account for 20%, Japan for 16% and Britain for 6%, the OECD said.
Favourable funding conditions between 2008 and 2022 enabled many governments and companies to borrow at low cost and to extend debt maturities.
However, around 40% of sovereign bonds and 37% of corporate bonds globally will mature by 2026, requiring further borrowing from the markets under higher interest rates, the OECD pointed out in its 2024 global debt report.
Refinancing requirements will likely be the primary driver of higher gross borrowing in 2024, expected to reach an historical level of $15.8 trillion.
That would surpass the peak reached during the pandemic and mark a 45% rise from 2019.
“Pressure on future interest payments will largely arise from new borrowings and the refinancing of fixed-rate debt, projected to lead to an increase in interest payments amounting to 0.5% of Gross Domestic Product in the OECD area by 2026,” it said.
The Paris-based organisation also highlighted that central banks have begun withdrawing from bond markets, with growing share of bonds being purchased by more price-sensitive investors such as households and the non-bank financial sector.
“A new macroeconomic landscape of higher inflation and more restrictive monetary policies is transforming bond markets globally at a pace not seen in decades,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said in a statement.
“This has profound implications for government spending and financial stability at a time of renewed financing needs,” he added.
The ratio of the OECD governments’ debt to its economic output is projected to increase slightly to 84% in 2024 after being largely stable last year at 83%.
The modest rise in the organisation’s area debt-to-GDP ratio hides relevant differences among countries as the United States will likely face a 3% increase, while Spain, Portugal and Japan will see a decrease, according to the OECD forecasts.
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