We have recently learned that the probability of an asteroid striking the earth in 2032 is 3.1%. That’s a substantial increase from past estimates.
3.1% is HUGE. That’s not the issue. But that’s the probability that it will hit somewhere.
What will it most likely hit? Water and not a lake or a river, but, rather, an ocean. The reason is that oceans cover 71% of the earth.
Still, that leaves 29%. But think about what we know about that 29%. Most of it has no one living on it, or, if it has people living on it, the population density is probably less than 50 people per square mile. An AI-assisted Google search says that over 90% of the Earth’s land has a population density of under 50 people per square mile. That leaves 10% (or a little less) of the earth’s surface with more than 50 people square mile.
Now we’re ready to do some calculations.
The probability of the asteroid hitting an area with more than 50 people per square mile = 0.031 * 0.29 * 0.1 = 0.000899.
That’s a 1 in 1,112 chance.
That’s still large. But it’s not huge.
What about the idea that even if the asteroid hits an ocean or a piece of land on which almost no one lives, it will destroy the earth?
The article I read says that that’s not true. It states:
To assess the danger of asteroids, scientists use the Torino Scale, which ranges from 0 to 10. A score of 0 means no risk, while a 10 indicates a global catastrophe. Asteroid 2024 YR4 currently holds a rating of 3, meaning it has a chance of localized destruction. This rating is rare and is only [sic] given to objects with an impact probability greater than 1%.
At its current size estimate of 131 to 295 feet, YR4 falls into the “city killer” category. Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society, explained, “If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs.”
This kind of impact could devastate cities like Mumbai, Bogota, or Lagos, which lie within its projected trajectory, endangering about 110 million people.
However, the asteroid is not large enough to cause a global catastrophe like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs. “This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. This is at most dangerous for a city,” reassured Moissl.
Does that mean we should do nothing about it? No. I hope Elon Musk gets on it, as he probably will.
