Oil prices started 2025 on solid footing, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude peaking in mid-January at five month highs of US$81.86 and US$78.90 per barrel, respectively.
However, that early momentum faded through February as US-China trade tensions, new tariffs and weak demand from Asia and Europe weighed on the global outlook. Prices for both benchmarks slipped to first quarter lows of US$69.12 for Brent and US$66.06 for West Texas Intermediate by early March. The volatility prompted the International Energy Agency (IEA) to cut demand growth forecasts to 1.2 million barrels per day, citing deteriorating macro conditions.
“Risks to the market outlook remain rife and uncertainties abound,” the IEA’s March oil market report reads. “Our current balances suggest global oil supply may exceed demand by around 600,000 barrels per day this year.”
The IEA went on to warn, “if OPEC+ extends the unwinding of output cuts beyond April without reining in supply from members currently overproducing versus their targets, another 400,000 barrels per day could be added to the market.”
Despite that backdrop, the four top-performing oil and gas stocks on the TSX and TSXV have seen share price growth over Q1 2025. All year-to-date performance and share price data was obtained on March 31, 2025, using TradingView’s stock screener, and oil and gas companies with market caps above C$10 million at that time were considered.
1. Falcon Oil & Gas (TSXV:FO)
Year-to-date gain: 37.5 percent
Market cap: C$122.01 million
Share price: C$0.11
Headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, Falcon Oil & Gas is an international oil and gas company incorporated in BC, Canada. The company specializes in the exploration and development of unconventional oil and gas assets, with interests in assets in Australia, South Africa and Hungary.
On January 24, Falcon issued its first corporate update of 2025, announcing the launch of a well stimulation campaign as part of the Shenandoah South pilot project the Beetaloo Sub-Basin, located in Australia’s Northern Territory.
The company has a 22.5 interest in the Beetaloo joint venture, with Tamboran Resources (NYSE:TBN,ASX:TBN) owning the remaining 77.5 percent. The campaign is focused on two wells, Shenandoah S2-2H ST1 and Shenandoah S2-4H, across horizontal sections measuring 1,654 and 2,977 meters, respectively.
Stimulation work is being carried out by Liberty Energy (NYSE:LBRT). Falcon has opted to reduce its participating interest in the remaining four wells from 5 percent to 0 percent, which it says significantly cuts its 2025 capital spending.
A February 7 press release confirmed the completion of the stimulation effort at S2-2H ST1. However, an update the following week reported that the stimulation campaign at S2-4H was cut short due to the “detection of stress in a casing connection.”
Reinforcement activities are scheduled for the first quarter of 2025, with stimulation operations expected to resume in the second quarter, following the completion of the IP30 flow test at the SS-2H ST1 well. The joint venture partners aim to announce the IP30 flow rates by mid-2025.
Company shares reached a Q1 high on January 19, trading for C$0.14.
2. Imperial Oil (TSX:IMO)
Year-to-date gain: 15.78 percent
Market cap: C$51.69 billion
Share price: C$103.83
Calgary-based Imperial Oil is a prominent Canadian energy company involved in the exploration, production, refining and marketing of petroleum products. With a history spanning over 140 years, Imperial operates diverse assets across Canada, including oil sands, conventional crude oil and natural gas assets.
On January 31, Imperial released its Q4 2024 results, reporting an estimated net income of C$1.23 billion in Q4 2024, slightly down from C$1.24 billion in Q3. The decline was attributed to lower price realizations, partly offset by higher production and improved refinery utilization in the Downstream segment.
Operating cash flow rose to C$1.79 billion in Q4 from C$1.49 billion in Q3. When excluding working capital impacts, Q4 operating cash flow was C$1.65 billion, down from C$1.8 billion in Q3. For the full year, Imperial posted net income of C$4.79 billion and operating cash flow of C$5.98 billion, or C$6.48 billion excluding working capital.
That same day, the company announced a Q1 2025 dividend of C$0.72 payable on April 1.
In mid-February, Imperial announced the retirement of Brad Corson, the company’s CEO, president and chairman. Its board approved the appointment of John Whelan to replace Corson in these roles. Whelan will assume the role of president on April 1 and become CEO and chairman of Imperial following the company’s annual shareholder meeting on May 8.
Shares of Imperial Oil reached a Q1 high of C$105.26 on March 30.
3. MEG Energy (TSX:MEG)
Year-to-date gain: 5.76 percent
Market cap: C$6.39 billion
Share price: C$25.32
MEG is an energy company solely focused on in-situ thermal oil production in Alberta’s southern Athabasca oil region. Utilizing innovative enhanced oil recovery projects, including steam-assisted gravity drainage extraction methods, the company aims to increase oil recovery responsibly while reducing carbon emissions.
In late February, MEG released its Q4 and full year results for 2024. MEG generated C$1.4 billion in cash flow and C$837 million in free cash flow for the year. The company pumped a record 102,012 barrels per day of bitumen while keeping costs low at C$5.39 per barrel.
The Calgary-based producer also slashed net debt to C$702 million and returned C$481 million to shareholders through C$454 million in share buybacks and C$27 million through its new C$0.10 quarterly dividend.
Looking ahead, MEG has greenlit a C$470 million expansion to ramp up production by 25,000 barrels of bitumen per day, bringing production to approximately 135,000 barrels per day by 2027.
Meg’s shares marked a Q1 high of C$25.32 on March 31.
4. Athabasca Oil (TSX:ATH)
Year-to-date gain: 4.38 percent
Market cap: C$2.84 billion
Share price: C$5.61
Athabasca Oil is focused on developing thermal and light oil assets within Alberta’s Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The company has established a substantial land base with high-quality resources. Its light oil operations are managed through its private subsidiary, Duvernay Energy, in which the company holds a 70 percent equity interest.
On March 5, Athabasca Oil released its 2024 year end results, highlighting strong production and major cash flow gains. In 2024 the company averaged 36,815 barrels of oil equivalent per day, marking a 7 percent year-over-year increase.
According to the release, the company kept capital spending in line with guidance, investing in expanding its Leismer and Duvernay projects. It held a net cash position of C$123 million and liquidity of C$481 million, and achieved free cash flow of C$322 million from its Thermal Oil division.
Athabasca Oil is sticking to its game plan in 2025, keeping production and spending targets steady. The company plans to continue returning 100 percent of free cash flow to shareholders through buybacks in 2025.
In its Thermal Oil division, output is expected to stay between 33,500 and 35,500 barrels per day, with a capital budget of about C$250 million. Key work includes new well tie-ins and expansion at the Leismer site, plus new production starting at Hangingstone in March.
Meanwhile, Duvernay Energy will spend approximately C$85 million this year to complete previously drilled wells and kick off new multi-well pads, aiming to reach production of roughly 5,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day by the end of the year.
Athabasca Oil shares rose to a Q1 high of C$5.65 on March 25.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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